8/29 – Brittany’s “Much More Pleasant” Monday Afternoon Forecast

A broad ridge of high pressure will remain over the northern gulf through the week promoting onshore flow with showers and thunderstorms expected each day.

Tonight through Wednesday Night, a fairly strong northern stream trough will dig into the eastern third of the CONUS over the short term period. As this trough axis deepens, acold front will sweep into the forecast area, and could potentially push as far south as coastal Louisiana by Wednesday night. In advance of this approaching frontal boundary, near climatology conditions are expected for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 70s. Convection will peak during the afternoon hours each day, but the processes driving the convective development will be slightly different from Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will see the normal seabreeze cycle be the dominant factor, but increased northerly flow associated with the deepening trough and front will help suppress the seabreeze on Tuesday. The frontal boundary itself will be sliding through the area Wednesday afternoon, and this will be the primary focusing mechanism for convective activity.

By Wednesday night, a pool of much drier air as indicated by precipitable water values of around 1.75 inches will feed into the area, and this will effectively suppress convection over inland areas. However, more coastal zones and offshore areas could see convective activity through the night as the front stalls somewhere in this area.