8/25 – Rob Knight’s “Return of Summertime Pattern” Morning Forecast
There will be a lot more activity today than the previous several days as high-pressure weakens. Showers/t-storms will develop late morning and early afternoon, a few thunderstorms could produce rain rates of 2-4″ per hour and this could cause some very localized flooding of poor drainage areas. Thursday will be different as a wetter scenario develops through Friday.
The Bermuda High-pressure will continue to dominate the area through the long term forecast. As is typical with summer time this allows for continued moist air advection and an inverted trough to move through the GOM and into the area. With this the primary threat over the forecast period becomes heavy rain and localized flooding.
The main concern with these two additional models is the strength and placement of the tropical system near Nicaragua. While the some models want to move it into TX and keep the system fairly stable, others have the system weakening over the next few days. Whilst we are in the midst of Hurricane season it is still too early to state what this system will do.