8/25 – Brittany’s “Extremely Saturated” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

Will be going up with a flash flood watch for today. This will not be as much of an areawide distribution but moreso a rate driven event. Some of the thunderstorms today could be in or around 4″ per hour rates over already saturated grounds. This would cause some areas to flood easily within a short period. PW values are still north of 2″ and covective trigger temps are still matching up with SST numbers. This would lead to a good bit of activity with heating by itself but the weak inverted boundary and sfc low will help this a bit, especially since they are over the area today causing a better focus. This was farther north yesterday. These features will continue to weaken but will still hang in enough to help get things going again Friday. Went more deterministic with precip percentages for today since these features are over the area. But may back these down gently for Friday and possibly again Saturday.

Sunday and beyond. an easterly to southeasterly flow pattern will be in place early next week, which will help to reintroduce more moisture into the area. This is shown in model soundings with PWATs jumping back to around or above 2″ and a rise in low and mid-level RH values. Any showers or thunderstorms that do develop will likely be on sea or lake breeze boundaries as well as any lingering outflows from previous storms. Temperatures are expected to remain consistent in the mid to upper 80s through the week.