8/24 – Rob’s “Final Day of Heat Advisory” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A weak backdoor trough is expected to linger over the area for the next few days. Upper level high-pressure is expected to weaken slightly over the next few days. Southerly surface winds will help to advect warm air and moisture into the region, which will help enhance lifting and humidity in the environment. As a result, any rain that occurs will not be very efficient and will not produce as high of rainfall rates. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible over the next few days, primarily during the peak daytime heating hours. The main threats from these storms will be gusty winds (30-40 mph) and frequent lightning. Locally heavy rainfall may be possible inside thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

Since today is expected to be fairly dry overall based on model consensus while still maintaining abundant humidity and higher-than-normal temperatures, there will also be the concern for heat. Heat index values are forecast to be between 108 and 112 for most of the area. A heat advisory is in effect thought 7 PM.

Thursday through Sunday, normal summertime pattern and upper level high-pressure will dominate the area. Deep tropical moisture will be abundant in the Gulf of Mexico toward the end of the week. Southerly to easterly surface winds will help to advect warm air and deep tropical moisture into the region. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible as we move toward the end of the week and the weekend. These showers and storms will be increased in coverage more than normal due to the abundant moisture presence in the atmosphere.

An additional features of note in the long-term forecast is the fact that the models are trying to produce some tropical disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico toward the weekend. However, model consensus is very uncertain and there are many differences in the models on timing, strength, and location of these potential disturbances. This is something that we will be monitoring in the next few days closely, but likely the main impact from any development toward the end of the week would be increased rainfall chances at this point.

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