8/21 – Rob Knight’s Friday Morning/Tropical Forecast

A stalled frontal boundary stretching in a north to south orientation from Walthall County through St. Tammany Parish and towards coastal Louisiana has served as the focus for thunderstorm development. The mid-level drier air will continue to feed into the area today with sunny and hot conditions ahead. This dry air is expected to remain in place through Saturday, when the moisture flow will return. Conditions will turn more unsettled on Sunday and remain so through Wednesday as a surge of deep tropical moisture feeds into the area on the western periphery of the Bermuda high.

High pressure will become more dominant across the eastern Gulf early next week, as the trough currently over the area shifts to the north and east. Fortunately, the extension of this ridge to the east should push TD14 more toward the Texas or southwest Louisiana coast. However, our region will likely still be on the “wet” side of this system, and there will be a threat for heavier rainfall beginning Sunday and continuing through Monday.

The other system of concern is TD13. This feature is expected to move through the eastern Gulf next Tuesday and Wednesday and potentially impact portions of Florida. There is still uncertainty in this forecast as the track of the system is highly dependent on the Bermuda high weakening. The main takeaway for next Tuesday and Wednesday is that deep tropical moisture will remain in place. This moisture combined with ample instability should be sufficient to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. The convection will likely be most pronounced during the afternoon hours when temperatures climb to near 90 degrees.