8/17 – Brittany’s “Rain Ahead” Wednesday Afternoon Forecast

The overall current pattern is fairly interesting across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. A surface “frontal” boundary resides generally along and north of the I20 corridor. As the front (again motivated to move closer to our CWFA thanks to stronger outflow propagation from convection) there will be an enhancement of shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the short term period. The front aided by modest H5 impulses from time to time will help generate a few opportunities for rainfall with the best potential aligned with the diurnal cycle.

Going into the upcoming weekend the upper level synoptic pattern still remains interesting. The subtropical high over the western Atlantic tries to nose into the region setting up an active southwesterly flow aloft. Upstream over the central United States a positively tilted trough will begin to dig southward in the the lower Missouri River Valley by late Friday and into Saturday. Locally, rain chances look to remain elevated especially during max insolation across the land based zones. Again, any ripple in the mid levels within the flow will hep enhance coverage for thunderstorms (again hydro concerns possible in those flood prone areas cannot be ruled out). At the surface, the residual front pretty much remains in place into the weekend.