8/16 – Rob’s “Tracking TS Fred” Monday Morning Forecast

A typical summer day is ahead with the exception of minor additional effects from TS Fred in the NE’tern GOM. With the trough in the upper levels moving south and the continued moist air mass; this should keep some convection in our area through tonight. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably warm each day near low 90s.

A front moving in and stalling over the region from the northwest will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area today as Tropical Storm Fred continues its track into the Gulf making  landfall somewhere near the Florida panhandle. Not much in the way of significant impacts to our area for this storm as it remains well east of the area. With this storm still being so disorganized and likely fighting shear from the SW, most of the heavy rainfall impacts will remain east of the center and hopefully coastal MS. Main impacts if any will be minor coastal flooding mainly along coastal MS and LA. Winds may also briefly exceed 20mph along the MS coast. A coastal flood advisory is in effect for these areas through 7pm.

Main discussion in the long term will be impacted by how Grace will form as it approaches the Gulf. As of now, the storm has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it continues to move northwest through the Caribbean. Right now it is still too early to discuss any local impacts, but now is the time to review your preparedness plans. If the Tropical Depression ends up NOT impacting the local area as it moves into the Gulf, you can expect the normal diurnally driven summer convection each day through the remainder of the week into the weekend with temperatures remaining in the upper 80s and low 90s.

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