8/15 – The Chief’s “Hot Temperatures” Monday Morning Forecast
Moisture flow has decreased and there are no real saturated layers. Winds are primarily northerly from 5k upward. No real indications that anything will change significantly during the day today, and any thunderstorm development should be rather limited. If anything does develop, it could have some gusty (but not severe) winds.
The upper pattern doesn’t change a lot between now and Wednesday afternoon, with the local area primarily in northwesterly mid- level flow between the ridge to the northwest and the trough to the northeast, with a surface frontal boundary to the north of the area. The one thing preventing me from going with a mostly dry forecast is that any impulse riding through that flow could produce convection in an uncapped airmass. If we do get thunderstorms, it’ll probably be from mid to late afternoon as convective temperatures are expected to be in the lower and middle 90s. They will have the potential to produce gusty winds, especially Tuesday afternoon when forecast soundings have downdraft possible.
As noted above, convective temperatures are climbing into the lower and middle 90s which should give a reasonable idea of potential heating. Would note, however, especially with a somewhat moist surface layer, that humidity levels will be fairly high and heat index values will be close to 105 in many areas. Not quite enough for Heat Advisories, but something to keep an eye on.
As we head toward the end of the week, the ridge to our west weakens a bit and the Bermuda high tries to build back westward into our area. We`ll see some upper toughing be a bit more pronounced across the area as a frontal boundary again attempts to push into the area. Areal coverage of thunderstorms will be higher as we move into Thursday and Friday with precipitable water values back around 2 inches and a disturbance digging through the lower Mississippi River Valley. Areal coverage will decrease a bit over the weekend after the passage of the disturbance.
