7/8 – Rob Martin’s “HOT But What About Rain” Friday Evening Forecast

Gulfport led the way with a real-feel of 111 degrees today, followed closely by Pascagoula at 110. It will remain hot this weekend with heat advisories again Saturday for real-feels up to 109 degrees. If you’re hitting the road, it won’t be any better in any direction, in particular going north where there’s excessive heat warnings for real-feels upwards of 114. But, t-storm chances will also ramp up as a front approaches and stalls. Increased cloud cover will also bring afternoon temperatures down next week.

Southerly surface winds will help push moisture and warm air into the region. There will still be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere and moisture values are forecast to be elevated above the 75th percentile for this time of year. As a result, any storms that develop will be more efficient with higher rainfall rates possible. Currrent analysis has scattered showers and storms for

tomorrow afternoon/evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms. Some frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-40mph) will be possible inside of stronger storms.

Saturday, a frontal boundary will slide into the area. There is still a fair amount of model uncertainty on the timing, but general model consensus has the boundary reaching our area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some stronger storms do look possible inside a small time window overnight Saturday for the northernmost portions of our area. Sunday through the beginning of next week, there is still a good amount of uncertainty in the models, but at a glance, the boundary is expected to linger over the area and re-fire storms daily, especially during the peak daytime heating hours. In general, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern, especially if training occurs, which seems within the realm of possibility. Some gusty winds could be possible, but likely would be lower in intensity (30-40mph). Frequent lightning will still be a concern inside these storms as well.

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