7/31 – Britt’s “Final Day of July” Sunday Evening Forecast

Tonight through Wednesday Night, on the synoptic level, an elongated ridge axis extending from Texas eastward across the Gulf South and then across Florida will weaken slightly as a northern stream trough axis descends into the Mid-South and then stalls somewhere between the I-10 and I-20 corridors from Monday into Tuesday. This general weakness aloft will continue into Wednesday, and the main impact from this troughing aloft will a slight increase in upper level forcing and more favorable conditions for longer lasting and deeper convective updrafts. Speaking of convection, at the mesoscale level, the seabreeze cycle will still be in full effect each day. Initially, land breeze induced convection will be found offshore and along the immediate coast in the early morning hours. As temperatures warm, the landbreeze will begin to transition inland as a seabreeze boundary and convective development will follow along.

Thursday through Sunday, the pattern will remain the same as seen during the first half of the week on Thursday with high precipitable water values and amble instability interacting with a seabreeze cycle to produce fairly widespread convective activity. This convection will be further supported by a broad area of weak forcing aloft that will allow convective cores to remain in place longer.