7/29 – Brittany’s “Pleasant” Friday Evening Forecast

We should see a gradual transition of dry air replace deep moist air late Saturday into Sunday. Then another transition of this dry air to the deep moist air again by late Sunday into Monday. The dry air will lead to lower precip chances but also cause higher downburst potential. As PW values climb again by late Sunday, the dry air exits and we get back to a normal summer diurnal rhythm. The dry air is moving in from the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge and is currently located over south Florida. This is very evident in PW fields. When the mid level dry air moves in, it should push most activity north and NW. But where this air meets the deeper moist air is where the strongest downbursts could occur. This happens again as the deep moist air replaces the dry air Sunday.

Monday and beyond, a TUTT low will rapidly move across the southern gulf over the weekend while a stalled upper trough remains over the central CONUS. The gulf coast will be caught in between these two systems with the interaction between the two causing a susident drying pattern at least temporarily. As the TUTT low moves to the western gulf, this upper subsident profile weakens and moisture is able to take its place for the start of the week bringing the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms back to where they have been for several weeks now. A low to mid level weakness develops along the gulf coast and is oriented east- west by Monday. This remains through at least mid week and could become a focus for some fairly heavy precip each day, especially where convergent flow develops into this boundary. There are some indications of an MCS or two developing and moving in the easterlies back toward the NW gulf by the end of the week.