7/2 – Rob Knight’s “Wet” Monday Morning Forecast

High pressure continues to be centered over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with a weak upper low centered near Mobile this morning. The upper low near Mobile this morning will be the main forecast issue over the next several days. Models are consistent in taking this feature steadily westward over the next 48-72 hours, to near Houston by Wednesday evening.

Expect activity trough the day with an increase in showers/t-storms during the early afternoon hours.

We will have the possibility for HEAVY RAINFALL this afternoon, with widespread rain amounts of 2 to 3 inches especially south of Interstate 10 over the next 48 hours.

Isolated higher amounts could exceed 5 inches in a few spots. We will still have enough moisture hanging around on Wednesday to justify 40-60% Precipitation chances across much of the area, but heavy rainfall threat should be lower.

Temperatures should still get rather toasty across western portions of the region today, with a few of those areas possibly getting into the low to mid 90s again, but clouds/precipitation should hold temperatures in the mid or upper 80s for the remainder of the area through Wednesday. Medium range models start having timing issues with impulses moving westward under ridging across the middle of the country as early as Thursday. The rain that occurs over the next 48 hours could leave us more vulnerable to a flash flood situation by the weekend. Bottom line will be a day to day mention of thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and early evening, with 40-60 precipitation chances for the most part. We will keep temperatures near normal in the forecast.