7/15 – Rob Martin’s “Halfway Through July” Friday Night Forecast
We’ll have just spotty activity into early evening before quiet conditions take over for the rest of Friday night. The downpours started earlier today, with much of it coming through Jackson County before weakening. High pressure will try to build in and shape the forecast though the weekend, but it won’t dominate enough to totally shut off spotty storms. The Bermuda ridge extends westward from the Atlantic Ocean to near Florida. A weak disturbance north of the area will continue to lift NE and weaken tonight.
The main concern with any storms today will be hourly rainfall rates which could be quite intense…on the order of 2 to 4″ in an hour. If any of the stronger storms develop over urban areas, could see some flash flooding, especially on streets and poor drainage areas.
On Saturday and Sunday, medium range models show the eastern edge of the upper ridge centered to the west trying to expand farther east. This will attempt to suppress convective development. Weekend highs will nudge 90 degrees with storm chances running 30-40% in the afternoons. The long term portion of the forecast shows more of the same with highs climbing to the lower 90s for much of next week, with real-feel temperatures running 100 to 107.