6/30 – Sam’s “Warm and Damp” Monday Evening Forecast

Happy Monday, South Mississippi!

After numerous storms throughout the afternoon and some rain lingering through the evening, we are expecting drier conditions overnight. However, we have a lot of moisture and instability so it won’t last too long and we will see more showers and a few storms popping up by sunrise, especially along the coast and offshore.

We’ll hover in the mid 70s through the morning hours, but temperatures may be a little slow to climb under a mix of clouds and sunshine. Regardless, we’re still expecting highs to range from the upper 80s to low 90s, all depending on just how much rain we get and how early it starts. Areas that don’t see rain as quickly will likely see high temperatures in the low 90s.

Rainfall amounts should generally stay within 1 to 2 inches area-wide, but we could see slightly higher amounts in thunderstorms. There is also a low end chance for a few of those storms to become severe, which would mean winds greater than 58 mph and/or hail 1 inch in diameter or larger. Our main threat would be wind, however there is a chance for small hail as well.

All this rain is associated with a big pooling of moisture in the northern Gulf, as well as being in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to wash out just to our south and has the potential to lead to tropical development over the next 7 days.

The National Hurricane Center has given this cluster of storms a 20% chance of development over the next week, but there are other environmental factors that won’t support major development. Regardless of whether it becomes the next named storm, it will still bring elevated rain chances for the Southeast over the next 7 days.

If it does strengthen enough to become a Tropical Storm, the next name in the 2025 Hurricane Season is Chantal.