6/26 – Britt’s “Wetter Conditions Ahead” Sunday Evening Forecast

Tonight through Tuesday, an approaching frontal boundary mixed with Gulf moisture influx will enhance rain chances for our area tonight. And a lingering boundary will set up overnight through Tuesday, which will enhance rain chances for the area especially during the daytime heating hours daily. There is plenty of moisture availability thanks to the influx from the Gulf, and decent instability (1500 J/kg). PW values are forecast to be around 2.2+ inches, which is above the 75th percentile for the SPC sounding climatology. So, these storms along the boundary will have the potential for higher rainfall rates and efficient rainfall. Shear values look to be pretty weak, looking at the models, with values around 15-20 kts, which will contribute to potential training of storms. Flash flooding will be a concern through the week, especially inside stronger storms and over any areas that may end up seeing multiple days of rainfall. Gusty sub-severe winds (30-60mph) and frequent lightning will be possible as well, especially if the shear ends up being stronger than forecast/expected. On the plus side, all this rainfall does mean that temperatures will be kept down and will not be as much of an issue this week. Highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 90s most days this week. MSW

Long term, Wednesday through Saturday… Wednesday, some rain chances and moisture will be enhanced from the tropical moisture plume in the Gulf, which has a 20% chance of development according to NHC. We do not expect any significant impacts for our area, but it appears in the models like it will help increase some moisture/convection in our area, especially along coastal areas.

The lingering boundary over our area will continue Wednesday through the end of the week, enhancing rain chances daily, especially during the afternoon hours. There will still be plenty of moisture thanks to an influx from the Gulf into the area. Instability looks decent (1500+ J/kg), so a few strong storms could fire up along the boundary. Shear still looks pretty weak overall (15-20 kts) looking at the model soundings, so there will be the concern of training of some storms. PW values are forecast to be around 2.2 inches with pockets of higher amounts, so inside of strong storms, rainfall will have the potential for higher rainfall rates and efficient rainfall. Gusty winds and frequent lightning will be a concern as well, especially if the storms are more progressive (and have more shear) than forecast in the models.

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