6/2 – Rob Martin’s “Storm Chances For Friday” Thursday Night Forecast
Earlier storms are again fizzling out after sunset this Thursday night. A weak cold front will crawl into the area and stall through Saturday. The interaction between the brewing tropical system in the southeast gulf and the upper low to our northwest is starting to cause more of a sinking/drying profile over the central and northern gulf, enhancing surface high-pressure and now starting to cut off the deep tropical moisture transport into the area. This will be apparent with some northerly flow early Friday, but the front itself will actually cause a slight increase in t-storm chances then.
The stalling system will provide the extra focus along with heating to provide a diurnal mix of showers/t-storms as moisture will still be available from the northern coastal areas. Some of these thunderstorms can become strong or even briefly severe the next several days under this northerly upper level flow. The front will be washing out Saturday but still close enough for spotty and occasionally strong storms. Sunday looks to be similar, although neither weekend day will even be close to a washout.
The front could stall near or over the northern portion of the area before slowly dissipating. But it will give a focus to a majority of the activity over the next few days. By Saturday evening, upper flow over the local area will be northwesterly, as system coming out of Mexico moves across Florida. The typical summertime pattern of afternoon t-storms will continue next week with humidity ramping back up a bit. Expect some 100° heat index readings then.