6/14 – Brittany’s “Warm Again” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Today will be another warm day. Our area has had a little less influence from the dust from the SAL and with a seabreeze could help keep the dewpoints a little higher and just before the seabreeze pushes through lead to locally higher temps which has allowed locations like PQL to top out around 95.

Tomorrow and Thursday is the possibility of an increase in convection. For the last few days the thinking was we would probably remain dry. As the ridge begins to retrograde though it could allow for a disturbance to rotate around the the ridge and work back underneath as an easterly wave. Wednesday still looks like it should remain mostly dry. First it will also just begin to retrograde so it should be dominating the region still and likely strong enough to suppress the convection to the south or at least keep the easterly wave from moving in till Thursday. Thursday (and Friday) are probably the lower confidence forecast days. The thinking now is that the ridge should be weak enough over the area and building northwest of the region to allow a much better chance for afternoon convection. Many of the models had been suggesting that an easterly wave would slide through the area and even though the guidance shows that some still remain stubbornly dry and probably should stay that route however moisture will be abundant, suppression should be lower, and with just enough lift from a weak wave convection should not be hard as we warm up. With that we are on the higher end of the PoP guidance and close to the NBM 4.1.

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