5/29 – Britt’s “Last Day of May” Tuesday Afternoon Forecast

Current upper level analysis shows a ridge centered near the Appalachian Mountains and a trough encompassing nearly half of the western US. A slither of that ridge will try to expand southwestward  across northern LA and into Texas over the next couple days. At the same time, tropical moisture will be pass across the Bahamas to the western Gulf of Mexico on the south side of the ridge. Just enough of that moisture pushing in and over the CWA combined with typical daytime heating this time of year will yield scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Coverage should be increasing tomorrow compared to today as PW`s rise from closer to 1″ yesterday to closer to 1.5+” today. Those values increase even above that on Wednesday.

By the latter half of the week, the broad upper trough northwest of the area will finally shift east Thursday, before exiting the East Coast Saturday. Through that transition period, expect daily scattered afternoon thunderstorms which may produce brief heavy rainfall at times. As that trough shifts east, expect the ridge now situated southwest of the CWA, to expand back northeast in the wake of the exiting trough. This will likely bring drier conditions and highs more solidly into the low/mid 90s.