5/14 – Rob’s HOT/HUMID Workweek Forecast
A lot of dry air is moving seaward from the central CONUS this morning with an area of low-pressure in the E’tern GOM. This coupled with strong suppression on the west side of the sfc low will keep sh/ts numbers down over the area for the next few days. But we will see better chances later in the workweek.
The sfc low over the southeast Gulf could go through a slow transformation over the next few days gaining either subtropical or tropical cyclone characteristics. Hurricane center sets the percentage at 30 for the next 2 days. The future path of this low is going to be over the eastern half of the gulf. The system will move northward for a bit before stalling and shifting or spiraling westward. This should start to occur later today. The low should then stall around 100 nautical miles south of Pensacola before taking its final journey north or northeast.
Looking out a bit past this forecast period, a few models continues to advertise a tropical low deepening over the western Caribbean by the middle of next week. We will continue to keep an eye on the Tropics as we head towards the official start of the season on June 1st.