5/1 – The Chief’s “Sunny & Oh WOW” Hump-Day Morning Forecast

Dense fog should quickly burn off in the following hours after sunrise and temperatures will rapidly warm into the upper 80s to low 90s area wide. It will be a solid 5-10F above normal area wide. Daytime heating along with a bit more focused lift along a surface boundary near the Atchafalaya Basin will aid in bubbling up of some afternoon showers and storms around this area, but the lack of shear and large scale forcing should keep these in check and things will quiet down quickly toward sunset.

Thereafter, our attention turns to the next approaching disturbance ejecting off the southern Rockies within the longwave west-southwesterly flow. This will be sufficient for widespread convective development along the dry line in the Texas Hill Country this afternoon and evening. This convection will gradually organize into an MCS that will propagate east into southwest Louisiana late Wednesday night. Exact timing remains highly variable between models.

The general southwesterly flow through the mid-levels associated with a robust and persistent longwave weakness pattern over the western CONUS will keep us warm and more humid through the long range.