4/23 – Rob’s Warmer Tuesday Morning Forecast

A gentle warming trend will continue through Wednesday due to cloud cover on the increase keeping any strong heating at bay. The current cold front over Texas this morning will move to near the Dallas area by Wednesday. This will be a very slow progression east through Thursday morning. This will help cause a continuation of strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall over northeast Texas into northwestern Louisiana.

There will be no shortage of severe wx variables where this area of thunderstorms progresses. The severity portion of this complex will be where the strongest mid and upper dynamics are located Thursday. This could be over the N’tern Gulf of Mexico or just north of the area. To get better confidence on best locations for severe wx, we will need to get a little closer to the event. SPC has basically set the entire area in a slight risk of severe for Thursday. All modes of severe wx would accompany this risk. Although thunderstorms with this system will have some very heavy rainfall, the cells will be transitory so some nuisance flooding of low lying areas may occur but widespread flooding issues are not expected.

Once the cold front moves through early Friday morning, some clouds could linger with a sprinkle or two through noon Friday, but overall fairly nice conditions will retake the area through the weekend.