4/20 – The Chief’s “Dense Morning Fog” Friday Eve Forecast

The upper pattern this morning has high pressure over the Great Lakes, with weakness from Montana into west Texas, and over Florida. At the surface, high pressure was off the Virginia coast, with low pressure over Kansas. A cold front extended from the Kansas low into west Texas. Locally, weak southeasterly surface flow has initiated the development of low clouds and dense fog from about Interstate 10 northward.

Main concern is the convective threat late tonight and Friday. Any fog/low clouds should burn off quickly this morning with temperatures warming to the lower and mid-80s in most areas away from the coast, where cooler water temperatures nearby will likely hold highs in the upper 70s. Upper disturbance will continue to move into the Plains states today with convection re-initiating this afternoon over Arkansas and Texas as a strong impulse drops southeastward out of the Rockies into the base of the trough.

Models indicate t-storms complex diving south-southeastward into the Gulf of Mexico during the morning hours Friday, with portions of the local area east of Interstate 55 getting little to no rain through Friday afternoon as the best instability gets cut off across our area. However, there is a second cluster of solutions that drive the convection more eastward, with at least a marginally severe wind/hail/heavy rain threat during the morning and early afternoon hours across much of the local area.

The cold front moves across the area Friday night, but the most favorable airmass will have long moved away from the area. I can’t rule out some isolated to scattered convection Friday evening. Beyond that point, dry weather is anticipated through the weekend into at least Monday with northwesterly upper flow.