4/12 – The Chief’s “Cloudy & Damp” Wednesday Morning Forecast
The upper low is now beginning to cut off from the base of the upper disturbance and should wobble but remain over or near the TX/LA border. Meanwhile the surface low developing this morning is over the central gulf at the moment but this will move north today with an explosion of storms offshore of the Miss delta area around or just after daylight.
Another weak surface low may develop to this low’s SE. This will set up a good dynamic fetch with strong SE and easterly winds along and up the eastern gulf into the north central gulf. This will cause water to pile along our shorelines and a coastal flood warning will remain for these very high water levels. Today could be the highest we see these levels. Although, this is not like a situation we would get with a tropical system, it will still be some abnormally high water levels that will inundate some secondary roadways that may need to be barricaded at some point today.
Heavy rainfall could become an issue but this should stay over the gulf and marsh areas of SE LA for much of today before moving inland later today. A strong surge of moisture with a warm front will rapidly move inland by late afternoon/evening and this is when the heavy rain comes into the picture for the central gulf coast. The rainfall looks to be efficient but also looks to be progressive but a few areas could get a quick 2-3 inches causing flooding or low lying and poor drainage areas. The next upper trough that kicks all this mess east moves into the west coast tonight and kicks this upper low out Thursday bringing all this rain east and relaxes the winds.
The next front will be well on its way. And there are some hints that some rapid development of a few possible t-storm complexes will rush out over the central gulf coast and northern gulf over the weekend. Some of this could be severe with mainly strong damaging winds as the main hazard. The cold front moves through Sunday morning clearing this out as well for the start of the new workweek.
