3/3 – The Chief’s “Cold Frontal Passage” Friday Morning Forecast

Currently there is a narrow line of showers across western Louisiana. Expect that to continue to move off to the east through the late morning hours. Most of the models are show this only being a broken line of showers as it moves through the area. Otherwise, the development of a 55-60 kt low-level jet should occur over the area per short-range guidance. This will provide an enhancement in shear and a focus for low-level convergence and overall synoptic forcing. Shear will be abundant ahead of the line, but then again it is mostly dependent on if we can break through the capping inversion. Regardless, due to the strength of the Low Level Jand pressure gradient at the surface, winds will be quite gusty ahead of the front.

Behind the front this afternoon, winds will be gusty and we return back to more normal temperatures. These gusty winds and dryer conditions will be a fire weather concern, but should not reach critical thresholds. High pressure builds into the area and we will be in zonal flow aloft, so expect the rest of the short term to be pleasant.

We remain in zonal flow aloft with a surface high pressure over the southeast until midweek. This will keep the temperature mild for the start of the next week. As we get into the middle of the week, upper-level ridging starts to build into the southern states. This will start a gradual warming trend to end the week, while still staying fairly dry.