3/1 – The Chief’s “Record Setting Temperatures Continue” 1st Morning Of March Forecast

Continued unseasonably warm conditions will persist for the next few days as the surface high over the Bahamas causes southerly surface flow into the area. The main focus of the short term will be the severe weather threat Thursday night and into Friday morning.

By Thursday, the trough that had been traversing over the west coast and southwestern US looks to eject over the southern plains. Rapid development will promote the formation of a rather impressive low-level jet of over 75 kt over Arkansas…where the main threat will exist. As we have been getting closer to Thursday, it does not seem that this will be much of an issue as there is good agreement that the LOW LEVEL JET will cover all of the area Thursday night and Friday morning. The diurnal timing of the event is the least favorable with it being overnight Thursday and early Friday morning. Another feature is the capping inversion across SW LA and into our area. The warm low-level air seems to originate off of the Mexican Plateau and advect into the region right out ahead of the cold front.

Given all that was discussed, the potential for severe weather seems greatest north Hattiesburg where the more favorable forcing and dynamics are expected to be in the form of a squall line. Shear will be more than enough for damaging winds and brief tornadoes from a squall line. After the passage of this system, a surface high pressure looks to build in Friday and we return to “normal?” or “less hot” temperatures. The high pressure and zonal flow aloft will keep the area dry and mild for the weekend and into next week.