2/7 – Brittany’s “Warmer” Tuesday Night Forecast

Going into the overnight low level moist flow will continue to increase leading to some marine fog development over the MS Sound and tidal lakes. It is possible for a short fused dense fog advisory later this evening or overnight.

Fog should begin to dissipate by mid to late morning on Wednesday as surface heating takes place. Then all eyes will be on the sharp trough beginning to transition to a negative tilt over the Ozarks and points north and east. This will help push a frontal boundary closer to the region. Ahead of the front, models paint a somewhat different mesoscale picture. CAMs/mesoscale models are a bit more bullish with developing a squall line upstream and eventually pushes through the region later tomorrow and tomorrow night. Globals decrease instability and with very little upper level forcing (most will be northeast of us) limit the overall potential…though mesoscale models keep instability more robust. The front will begin to slow as the initial sharp  upper level trough begins to move further northeast over the Great Lakes. This will allow the frontal boundary to hold in place over the eastern 1/3rd of the CWFA or perhaps just east over the MOB area. The proximity of the front may be enough to keep POPs in the forecast through Thursday and into Thursday night. Eventually, the next strong trough will begin to move closer to the region and should help move the front along (which will then be in the long term period).

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