2/24 – The Chief’s “Final Weekend Of February” Warm Afternoon Forecast
The main feature at the surface remains to be a frontal boundary that has come to a slow crawl or just about stationary to our north. This is bordering a very large temperature contrast between deep tropical air across the northern Gulf states to a polar continental air over the central and northern US. With prominent low- level moisture, weak/subtle warm air advection regime, moisture parked in place supporting mostly cloudy skies and some low clouds.
Thicker upper-level clouds could offset some of the strongest warming, with highs just a few degrees “cooler” than yesterday – but still very warm. Again, a nice day with temperatures nearing record highs for this date, but should refrain from flirting with, or surpassing monthly records like we saw yesterday. Short range guidance hint at the possibility of the nearly-stalled frontal boundary to our north wobbling south a little later today/tonight, as high pressure shifts east over the Great Lakes. Some cooler/drier air could drain/press the front south as suggested, but still not confident enough to really puncture the front into the area other than perhaps into some of the SW MS counties. It will be warm yet again on Saturday with the same warmer bias applied for forecast highs.
Upper high pressure over the north central Gulf and surface high pressure over the area continue to control the weather through early in the week. Temperatures remain unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s; this is 10-15 degrees above normal. By Monday into Tuesday we expect to see a relatively weak upper low moving northeastward from the desert southwest across the central Midwest and into the eastern Great Lakes and OH River valley. This low drags a week front across the area.