2/23 – Rob’s Friday Morning Forecast

An upper level ridge is currently centered north of the Bahamas and extends into the Bay of Campeche while a trough axis is located west of the Rocky Mountains. Moisture wrapping around the area of high-pressure will surge northward across the area today. Daytime heating with continued unusually high temperatures for this time of year will enhance shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Activity will decrease during the overnight period, but not completely diminish. Overcast skies will both keep temps from falling much below 70 (20+ degrees above normal!) and limit fog development to just a light haze.

The main upper trough axis currently west of the Rockies will finally lift northeast and race across the midsection of the country this weekend. This will send a front through the forecast area early The front and increased instability will support marginally severe thunderstorms. Hail will be a minimal threat while downdraft winds are the greatest threat along with tornadic activity. The chance for anything severe will diminish rapidly after the boundary moves in. Monday`s rain chances will depend on if the front gets nudged offshore or stays put.

The ridge that was north of the Bahamas will be settling in over the southern Gulf of Mexico Through the rest of next week. This may or may not put the area in conducive area for persistent shower and thunderstorm development early next week.