12/7 – The Chief’s “VERY Cold Start” Friday-Eve morning Forecast

Temperatures will warm up nicely today with ample sunshine and upper level clouds moving in this afternoon. Surface high pressure will build to our east allowing for a slow but steady SE return flow regime to take shape. Even though we will be well-mixed again during the afternoon, some of this subtle return flow may slow the component of the dew-point dropping as much.

Tonight/Friday is where we’ll start to focus back to our west at our next developing storm system. The upper-air pattern is somewhat complicated in the onset, with many embedded disturbances moving east. Friday will be nice overall with partly cloudy skies and the same warming trend persisting, but am feeling more opted against the idea of widespread rain during the day on Saturday with best lift being delayed (and weak at that) and the only dynamic ascent being fueled by warmer air moving into the area.

Going into Saturday night/Sunday morning is when the front will steadily approach the area. Overall, soundings are largely transitioning with time and a very weak ascent other than frontogenetic at play to cause a significant concern for severe weather. Could more likely be a line of showers/storms cold-pool dominant racing east thru overnight. Severe parameters could support a hail risk, but isolated tornadoes or damaging severe wind gusts will be hard to find especially given the lack of diurnal support. But beyond that into daybreak Sunday, cold air advection will take over with the front.

Sunday through early next week, weak high pressure builds over the area, bringing dry and cool air into the region. Conditions will be dry Sunday through Tuesday predominantly as a result.Temperatures will be quite chilly for lows especially Monday morning with lows near freezing for much of the area.