12/6 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Pattern Returns” Monday Morning Forecast
A cold front still tracking toward the area early this morning will move into the northwest portion of the area around noon, reaching the Mississippi Coast areas sometime around 6 pm. Scattered t-storms will become more prevalent this afternoon with rain post frontal passage. Moisture flow will continue to increase this morning with the front is expected to slip to the south of the coastline overnight tonight. The forecast problems beyond that point are where does the front become stationary, and when/how far does it return northward ahead of the southern stream impulse arriving from Mexico at some point Tuesday afternoon/night. North of the front, we can anticipate low clouds and perhaps patches of drizzle or showers tonight into the first half of Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder near the warm front won’t be out of the question.
Temperature forecast is going to be rather difficult for portions of the forecast, with lower than normal confidence. Today, we’ll be well above normal ahead of the front. The second fast-moving disturbance flattens as it moves through the middle Mississippi Valley on Thursday. The result will be scattered showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon as daytime heating further destabilizes the atmosphere. Expect to be between systems Friday as that second disturbance continues eastward and yet a third upper disturbance digs into the western CONUS. This third trough looks to be a bit more potent and should push a cold front clean through the area sometime late Saturday or Saturday night.