11/28 – Brittany’s “Threat For Severe Weather Ahead” Monday Night Forecast

We’re on tap for a quiet but chilly evening. Temperatures will bottom out towards the mid 50’s and we’ll see a gradual increase in cloud coverage in advance of the next system that will approach our area by tomorrow. Tomorrow, we’ll be under a SLIGHT risk for severe weather (Level 2 out of 5). The greatest threats we could see will be the potential for strong to severe wind gusts, isolated tornadic activity, large hail, and heavy rainfall.

By mid-morning tomorrow, the warm front will have rapidly advanced northward leaving a wide open warm sector across much of southern Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. Thermodynamic profiles will begin to become favorable for more robust updrafts to develop in the warm sector.

A second round of convective activity more closely associated with the frontal boundary is expected later Tuesday night into the morning on Wednesday which could also still carry a severe weather threat, though much more limited in nature. Thermodynamic profiles appear to wane as diurnal forcing weakens and the trough lifts out of the area and wind profiles become more unidirectional leading to more linear convective modes. This will make this round of storms primarily a damaging wind threat as they move through overnight. The caveat with this round being the uncertainty of how the warm sector convection earlier in the day modifies the environment these storms will pass through. Excessive rainfall will also be possible Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning as these storms track across the area given the rich moisture and anomalously high PWAT values between 1.8 to 2″. The threat for locally heavy rainfall will be highest in southern MS and the Florida Parishes where storms producing rainfall rates of 1- 3″/hr could move over the same areas, especially given the potential for rainfall with the second round of storms overnight. The front will then move through on Wednesday morning clearing out rain chances with gusty winds upwards of 20-25 mph from the north on the backside of the boundary.

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