11/2 – Brittany’s “Pleasant” Wednesday Night Forecast

We’re on tap for a clear, cool, and muggy night. Tomorrow, we’ll have rain free and sunny conditions yet again with warm temperatures. Subtle changes will begin on Friday when we’ll begin to see increasing moisture and cloud coverage.

A cold front and accompanying squall line continue to move into the area. The upper low that these features are associated with will be lifting into the Great lakes region and the overall trough is expected to be deamplifying as well. This should cause the forward motion of the cold front and squall line to slow as upper level flow weakens and becomes more parallel to the low level features. Severe weather threat looks to be limited by the fact that the best forcing will be quickly moving away from the area. However, cannot rule out a low end severe threat mainly during the daylight hours Saturday with dewpoints forecast to be approaching or even exceeding 70 degrees, the added lift associated with the boundary itself, and and a fair amount of shear due to both veering and strengthening winds with height.

The greater concern looks to be potential for heavy rain. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that precipitable water will be near or even in excess of 2 inches across much of the area. This is around 200% of normal for this time of year and nearing the daily max as indicated by the SPC sounding climatology. That being said, many of the storms could be efficient rain makers. Couple this with the fact that the system will be slowing and eventually stalling over the local area before becoming more diffuse on Sunday, high rainfall totals will certainly be possible. Would not be surprised at all to see WPC introduce a threat area for Saturday once it enters the day 3 time frame and the location of where the front will stall becomes a little clearer. By Sunday the front becomes more diffuse as the upper level pattern flattens. Will continue to carry a slight chance of showers though as one or two could pop up along the old boundary.

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