11/13 – Trey’s “Rainy Nights” Monday Night Forecast
Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen
A surface low has developed over the course of today in the western Gulf just off the coast of Texas, in association with the shortwave across Texas. That low will continue to deepen as it moves east. In the weather community, there is some discussion on exactly where the low will move across the Gulf. The high- resolution models try to anchor the low with the convection in the Gulf, versus the global guidance being more synoptically driven with where the low goes. If the low does get anchored to the convection, then expect a more southward track of the low into the central Gulf, but if the synoptic track is correct, expect the low to track closer to the coast. Based off of recent trends, the low looks to be a little farther south and more in line with the high-res models. Areas along the coast will have the best shot of seeing 2-4 inches over the next few days, with locally higher amounts of 6 inches possible. The heaviest rain seems to be near the coast for Tuesday. As always: A cloudy day is no match for a sunny disposition. Be nice to each other. - Meteorologist Trey Tonnessen -