11/13 – Rob’s “Very Cold” Tuesday Mid-Morning Forecast

Taking a quick glance at climate for this year, many areas will likely see the coldest air so far this season, going back to at least March or April with lows this morning averaging around 8 to 12 degrees below normal.

A brief synoptic overview across the region shows a progressive NW to SE flow upstream of a coastal Atlantic trough. We will rebound nicely later today with highs in the lower 70`s and an all-around gorgeous day. By tonight, the surface high begins to pull away towards the central Mid-Atlantic, which will try to switch winds more from the ENE. Expect another night of nearly calm winds with another night of strong radiative processes again.

Easterlies across the northern Gulf of Mexico may provide just enough moisture for some isolated to perhaps scattered convection sometime around Friday night or Saturday as a weak northern disturbance tries to cut off across the area. Moisture is pretty limited though. An upper trough moving from the Four Corners area to the Great Lakes around mid-week next week could push a cold front into the area, but this would occur beyond the current range of the forecast.

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