11/1 – Rob Knight’s “November Outlook” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Currently there is an upper level disturbance over East Texas, with surface high pressure centered near Meridian MS. Upper jet max transporting a lot of moisture at upper level cloud toward the area. Some patchy fog out there under decent radiating conditions, but low visibility have not been persistent in most locations.

The disturbance will move northeastward and deamplify. Most of the moisture with this system is at mid and upper levels, forecast soundings don’t show saturation getting much below 10,000’. Thus, mainly mid and upper clouds expected today and tonight. I can’t absolutely rule out a few sprinkles of light rain, particularly in northwest sections late this afternoon and overnight.

Upper high pressure will gradually build over the north central Gulf of Mexico  through the end of the work week. A strong disturbance will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the middle and upper Mississippi River Valley Friday and Saturday. The best upper support is expected to be well to the north and northwest of our area, but the disturbance will suppress the strongest high pressure east of the area by the end of the weekend. Likely to be a fairly sharp gradient of precipitation chances from west to east across our area. The best chances of rain, such as they are, will be over western portions of the area on Saturday. It’s entirely possible that areas east of Interstate 55 see little or no precipitation this weekend.

Much above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period, with high temperatures 10 degrees F or more above normal in many areas. Overnight lows likely to be 10-15 F above normal as well, with no significant cooling expected prior to the middle of next week, if that soon.

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