10/5 – Rob’s “Changing Pattern” Tuesday Morning Forecast
The main focus will be more toward rainfall rates and not as much on totals area wide. Rates could be around 2 to 3 inches per hour today and isolated areas could see 2 to 4 inches in a short time causing some localized flooding issues. A marginal risk is out for excessive rainfall for the best chances of getting rainfall today over coastal Mississippi. This is all being brought about from an upper disturbance that extends from northern LA up into the northeast. The east side of this trough is where the plume of deep moisture and support for convective development is greatest. Cloud coverage will be dominant with the mainly diurnal development of showers/t-storms over coastal Mississippi through Wednesday.
A mostly pleasant and quiet forecast period is ahead for the weekend as an upper level high-pressure shifts east across the Mississippi river. This brings a decrease in rain potential and a less humid flow pushes into our region. High temperatures remain mostly average in the mid 80s for most parts of the forecast area. Low temperatures stay average in the mid to upper 60s closer to the coast, while northern parts of the forecast area see the low 60s.