10/4 – Rob Knight’s “Autumn Changes” Weekend Forecast

Augtober looks like it`s going to stick around at least another day before changes occur. Several records have been threatened or broken over the past few days. Even with high-pressure weakening a bit, high temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s through Saturday. To add insult to injury, the beautiful cold front that many of us were counting on to finally bring us some relief next week has been looking weaker over the last few model runs. It should still drop temperatures 5 to 10 degrees, but even with that drop, most places will still see slightly higher than normal temperatures.

With subsidence weakening as the high-pressure flattens, we should see isolated to widely scattered showers/storms today and Saturday. By Sunday and Monday expect scattered coverage as the front approaches. Rainfall amounts not overly impressive with most places forecast to see a half inch accumulation or less. This won’t make much of a dent in the dry conditions across the area, but at least it’s something. The latest drought monitor published today does indicate that abnormally dry conditions have officially expanded across nearly all of our southern and coastal Mississippi counties, as well as parts of SE LA that are north of the I-10/12 corridor. Depending on how much rain actually falls with this front, further expansion and/or worsening intensity will be possible in next week.

The slightly cooler air mass behind the front will quickly modify as another disturbance digs into the four corners region, forcing surface high pressure eastward and causing surface winds to become more easterly or southeasterly late Wednesday and into Thursday in advance of another cold front.