10/27 – Jeff Vorick’s “Very Nice” Thursday Afternoon Forecast
High pressure to our north is in control of our weather pattern today. Winds have become easterly in South Mississippi as transition of the pattern is underway. The upper disturbance over the Inter-mountain West will continue to move eastward into West Texas by tomorrow. With the upper-level flow becoming more southwesterly, moisture should start arriving in our area Friday morning. This will cause an increase in upper level clouds. The cloud layer will gradually get thicker and become lower. However, there won’t be much of an onshore wind component at the surface until Friday afternoon.
Friday night into Saturday bring our next weather-maker. The disturbance over West Texas Friday afternoon is expected to track to near Shreveport by midday Saturday and to somewhere near St. Louis on Sunday. The system will be evolving in such a way that prolific lift and moisture is favored for our area. That scenario would have a swath of significant rainfall associated near the upper low and another over the Gulf. The highest amount of instability from heating will be to the south of us. With that, the severe thunderstorm risk is forecast to be Marginal (Level 1/5).
Areas that do get into the warm sector will have a greater risk of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. As the exact track of the system becomes more certain, it will be easier to pinpoint heavy rainfall and potential severe thunderstorms. As the storm system continues to lift away from the area Saturday night, conditions should dry out quickly. When the system departs, there will be little-to-no rainfall behind it.