10/27 – Brantly’s “Evening Severe Weather Threat” Wednesday Forecast
Rapidly changing weather conditions will be the rule over the next 18 to 24 hours, with the threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall continuing to be a concern. Low level moisture inflow will increase rapidly this morning with the front surging northward as a warm front. We are still expecting dry conditions to continue over the area through noon Wednesday, after which the strengthening southerly ahead of the slowly advancing warm front sets up mainly scattered showers in the afternoon. As this system continues to approach from the west, it is expected to bring a squall line through the forecast area Wednesday night on a pre-frontal trough, with a strong cold front following soon after.
Moderate shear will be present in a fairly unstable atmosphere. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a Slight Risk of severe weather, which is threat level 2 out of 5 on their scale. Damaging winds gusts look to be the primary threat from severe storms that develop, with a few tornadoes possible as well as large hail. Locally very heavy rainfall is possible with the very high moisture content of the airmass. Rainfall rates in excess of 2.5 inches in an hour are possible, but with the progressive nature of the system, and the fact that October has been rather dry across most of the area, that should limit any widespread flooding concerns.
The cold front should clear the area after midnight with gusty west winds expected behind the front and much cooler air. Wind Advisories may be issued at some point late tonight or Thursday as winds pick up to 20 to 30 miles per hour with occasional gusts up to 35 mph.
Lingering breezy winds will subside through the day Saturday and look to be back to calm by early Sunday. Clear skies will persist for Halloween weekend and early next week as a surface high pressure system builds over our region. Rain chances are near zero for the rest of the forecast with a lot of dry air hanging around. Temperatures heading through the weekend and early next week will be cooler. High temps trend in the low to mid 70s for most areas while low temps drop all the way into the upper 40s for some northern locations with areas closer to the coast sitting in the mid 50s to low 60s.