10/21 – Brantly’s “Warmer Than Normal” Wednesday Forecast
It will be warm and humid once again today along the Gulf Coast. Expect a mix of sun and clouds with high temperatures staying above normal… topping out in the lower to mid 80s. As the upper ridge begins to retreat for the area on Thursday, model soundings show modest mid level cooling sufficient to support mostly slight chance of rain over the entire area on Thursday initiated by a combination of daytime heating and a weak sea breeze. Some patchy fog will be possible early this morning and again late tonight mainly over interior areas.
Highs today and Thursday will be in the mid 80s which are about 10 degrees above seasonable values, and lows tonight will be rather mild and range from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast which are about 15 degrees above normal.
An upper level trough quickly ejects over the northeastern states as another trough moves across the northern states through Thursday. The nose of a surface ridge of high pressure remains rooted over the southeastern United States. A weak upper level trough approaches the area Thursday into Friday, and with ample deep layer moisture present this should help to spark off showers and thunderstorms during the period.
The best chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be on Friday afternoon into Friday evening, where rain chances have been raised to 60% for most areas. As the upper level trough passes the area Friday night, expect shower and thunderstorm chances to decrease. Unseasonably warm weather persists this period, with overnight lows in the middle to upper 60’s both Thursday and Friday night, and highs in the lower to middle 80’s Friday.