1/6 – Brittany’s “Slightly Warmer” Friday Evening Forecast
Quiet weather through the first half of the weekend with cool mornings and warm afternoons.
Only minor tweaks made to the forecast with this package as forecast reasoning hasn`t changed and model guidance remains in fairly good agreement through the first 35 hours.
High pressure will continue to shift eastward tonight. With light winds and clear skies, temperatures should fall pretty quickly after sunset, though falls will be mitigated somewhat by gradually increasing dewpoints. NBM seemed reasonable most areas, but did blend in the raw MAV and MET numbers to better capture the cooler drainage areas along the Pearl and Pascagoula basins which seemed a bit too warm in the deterministic NBM.
Tomorrow the high shifts even farther east and we are expected to be solidly in a return flow regime with southeasterly or southerly winds through the entirety of the low levels. This is in response to an upper trough and associated surface frontal system approaching the are from the northwest. The bulk of the impact from this system is expected during the day Sunday, but northwestern areas could start to see some shower and thunderstorm activity after midnight Saturday night, especially toward daybreak and in the far northwestern areas.
Regarding temperatures, latest NBM for Saturday highs is slightly cooler than the inherited forecast, so have adjusted it upwards by blending in the 75th percentile solution to account for the cool bias over the last few days. Overnight lows seemed reasonable and no adjustments were made to the deterministic NBM.