1/31 – The Chief’s “Final Afternoon of January” Sunny & Warm Forecast

A reinforcing shot of dry air has started moving into the area. A back door cold front has moved into the N’tern GOM and will continue SE and dissipate. Fog looks to become more prevalent tonight and then again Thursday night into Friday morning. The next front that sends a line of rain & t-storms through the area still looks to do so starting Saturday. Again, the timing of this is very similar to the last two days of model runs, so confidence in timing is growing. Basically entering the west around noon Saturday and exiting to the east around noon Sunday.

The surface instability gets shoved to the SE over the gulf leaving the line of storms elevated over the area with exception of the open gulf. But this instability does move into the area once the line has moved through. This is suspect, and this sort of profile would normally appear like this if there is a secondary line along an actual front and the storm ahead of it associated with a prefrontal trough. This may end up being the case, but there is no resolution of this at the moment.