1/20 – Brittany’s “Chilly & Gloomy” Friday Evening Forecast

Main concern in the short term will be rain potential the next 48 hours but when will rain actually reach the ground is more of an unknown. 12z soundings this morning both KLCH and KLIX showed a very dry airmass in the LL and even in the mid levels. LCH was already starting to moisten up and even Abbeville registered light rain but else all the radar returns were not reaching the sfc over southwest LA by 20z. We will continue to moisten down through the night but even by 6z tonight fcst soundings over BTR still showed the LL dry air and doesn`t really moisten up sufficiently till 9/10z. That said there looks like we will see a decent band of elevated convection along the LL front which looks like it sets up along a line from just west-southwest of De Ridder, LA to southwestern MS and perhaps just across the MS/LA border. This line may be north or south about 40-60 miles and that will be where the heaviest rain occurs in the region. This looks like it lines up with a LL front and is co-located with RRQ of the jet. That said it will be a long slow event as it will take time to moisten up but by Sunday night that area may see a band that eventually has 2-3 inches of rain, but not major concerns with respect to flooding. farther south near the coast and in the coast waters the sfc will track and to the south and southeast deeper convection is possible but along the track and northwest to just south of that line we will likely see a rainfall minimum. This will make for likely 2 areas of heavy rain and a larger area in the middle of much lighter rain.

 Even as the sfc low tracks slowly to the northeast a boundary will lay up from northeast to southwest until a strong s/w moves through the MS Valley Sunday night. Southwest flow aloft parallel to that boundary will likely lead to widespread light rain which will finally move out late Sunday.

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