1/2 – Brittany’s “Wet Conditions Ahead” Monday Evening Forecast

Going into tonight a band of convection near or just ahead of a trailing cold front will develop across the ArkLaTex region and gradually shift toward our area by daybreak on Tuesday. As the aforementioned shortwave trough begins to exit toward the Great Lakes region, this feature begins to slow down as it begins to line up with the upper level SW Flow.

Tuesday we`ll need to watch for both severe and potential hydro concerns. First – Severe.  Simply put, the mesoscale models are showing a fairly active day severe weather wise on Tuesday. Supportive low level shear and instability will all be present. The initial ongoing convection will need to be monitored as it gradually shifts east over the region Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, within the warm sector there is a concern for supercellular activity (with all svr hazards possible) to develop ahead of the primary band of convection along the front. Looking at two potential limiting factors here 1) limited height falls and lack of initial trigger for convective development…this could be offset by the the H3 subtropical jet dynamics during this time or 2) with little inhibition the inverse takes place where an over abundance of convection develops limiting the amount of destabilization. At this juncture, there appears at least in the CAMs to be a balance hence SPC upgrade to ENH risk over SE LA and portions of S MISS.

Now hydro. First, grounds are saturated…no doubt about that. With the band of convection developing and only gradually advancing Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, this may set up for multiple rounds of storms to develop from SW to NE.  PWATS are close to climo max within the guidance as well, so that does us no favors. As for the convective band of solid or broken T`storms, it appears it will hang around until finally a shortwave amplifies over the Red River Valley upstream late Tuesday and early Wednesday finally kicking this feature to the east. The more organized potential for flooding would likely occur Tuesday night where there front sits over the region and upper level forcing becomes maximized.

Categories: Weather Headlines