1/11 – Brittany’s “Very Warm” Wednesday Night Forecast
A cold front moves through Thursday and should enter the area around 9am and out of the area around 4pm. Instability and shear values are at the lower end of the scale for severe wx but dynamic forcing is lacking. There is also a 2C inversion ahead of the front locking any of those sfc parameters with any convection ahead of the front. The best and strongest forcing with this system is along the frontal interface. This is the only place that any sh/ts become sfc based. So if something is going to occur, it would likely be with the activity along the frontal axis Thursday.
Once the cold front moves through, cooler dry air will settle over the area as a strong sfc high moves through Thursday into Thu night. Winds will decouple and go calm by Friday evening setting up a strong radiational cooling night bringing temps down to a light freeze over the northern half of the area. And lowest temps could flirt with 29F but this should be right at sunrise and the amount of time at these temps should not be excessive. Return flow will set up again Sunday and it will be another round of trying to figure out the fog issues before the next front moves near the area by the middle of next week.