09-13 – Steve’s WET Midday Forecast

Today’s Weather

The Gulf Coast states are under the influence of several atmospheric phenomena today. Namely, we’re being affected by an upper-level trough of low pressure that extends from off of the south Texas coast eastward to the east coast of Florida. This particular feature is keeping the western Gulf of Mexico dry for now and the eastern part of the Gulf more stormy. A weak stationary frontal boundary is also impacting areas of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas with rain and storms this morning. Finally, an area of disturbed weather that once may have become a tropical depression is along the eastern Florida coast near Cape Canaveral.

Our sensible weather over the next couple of days will be pretty steady. With the trough’s proximity in the Gulf, combined with the sea breeze effect, we’ll see afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms all over southern Mississippi. This effect is reversed overnight and, therefore, we’ll see increased maritime rain chances after midnight. High temperatures will range from the mid-80s to near 90 through Wednesday. Rainfall totals could exceed one inch in areas that receive rainfall as the storms that form may be slow movers.

Later in the week, some of the moisture from the system on Florida’s east coast this morning could move into the northeastern Gulf. While tropical formation is not expected, some of the energy could bring increased rain chances. What is even more likely is that energy associated with the northern Gulf trough will impact us as the trough retrogrades north and back over land areas from south Louisiana to northern Florida. This will certainly increase our daily coverage of rainfall and thunderstorm activity. Again, I have to say that heavy rainfall will be possible with these slow-moving storms.

And isn’t it about time for something to really cool us down by a few degrees? I believe it is and, after many conversations with Chief Meteorologist Rob Knight, I’m becoming more convinced that a classic late-summer early-fall cold front may finally make it’s way into the Deep South next week. Not sure on timing at this point, but it would appear that the strong high pressure ridge over us (that has been over us for months at this point – it’s semi-permanent) may begin to recede to our east and north, allowing northern-stream systems to make it farther south, which has not been happening since the spring.

We can hope!

Tropical Weather

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ian, located well to the east-southeast of Bermuda and moving northward. Ian won’t affect land.

And from the Hurricane Center’s own Tropical Weather Update:

An area of low pressure located just west of Melbourne, Florida, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms near the Florida east coast and the adjacent Atlantic waters. Significant development of this system is not likely since the low is expected to continue to move over land through Wednesday. Locally heavy rains will continue to spread over central and northern Florida today and tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…near 0 percent

A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, located a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Slow development of this disturbance is possible during the next several days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are likely over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent

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