09/10 – Brantly’s “Dry and Calm” Friday Morning Forecast
Dry air moving into the Gulf Coast behind yesterday’s cold front is giving the area much needed break from the oppressive heat and humidity. These conditions will last through Saturday. Sunday will be a transition day with deep tropical moisture moving north bringing scattered to numerous showers and storms back to the area. A tropical wave moving through the Gulf will provide the deep plume of moisture. This will also be helped along by an upper level high pressure system which will provide the conditions necessary for broad scale development in a tropical environment. Several bursts of storm development are expected over the Gulf and this could help in the development of a tropical cyclone over the deep southern or western Gulf over the weekend. This is where the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a strong chance of development over the next 5 days.
A wet and unsettled period ahead as deep tropical moisture streams up out of the SW gulf and into SE TX and Louisiana through the early part of next week. High pressure will move off to the east of the area Monday bringing moisture levels back up. Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread on Monday especially in the southern and western portions of the forecast area. Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday appears to be the most active days with a wave of tropical lows streaming up from the southwestern Gulf into SE Texas. Latest models bring another cold front ahead disturbance on Wednesday afternoon bringing the tropical wave eastward from SE TX into South LA. This will enhance lift on Wednesday evening given emergence of frontal boundary. The threat for heavy rainfall will increase Monday and could be an issue especially along the LA and MS coasts through Wednesday.