08/15 Ryan’s “TS Fred Update” Sunday Night Forecast

Fred has wobbled a bit, but now zeroing in on a Florida panhandle landfall.

The last 48 hours have been a bit all over the place with regards to TS Fred, but the latest update has me feeling better. This particular storm’s projected path has had one of the largest spreads distance-wise of any I’ve seen in quite some time.

As it was developing, it initially looked look Fred would hug the west coast of Florida and pass through the big bend.

Last night, the path was much closer to Alabama, and today it’s pushed in between Pensacola and Destin. The reason for this is two-fold. First, Fred really struggled through Hispaniola and Cuba, degenerating into an open wave at one point. When you’re not able to fix the exact center, the models don’t have a good starting point to work with and the path can be hard to deduce. Second, a weaker storm is more shallow and can be “bullied” more by low level winds.

As it strengthened today it was able to push back against those winds and the Bermuda High more, forcing its way further east.

Long story short, we won’t see much of an impact locally from Fred tomorrow. Expect some gusty 20 mph northerly winds and increased cloud cover with a high near 90. Biggest impact will be on the coast and in the Gulf, where seas can be on the rougher side and a small craft advisory has been issued.



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