03/03 – Rob Knight’s “Warm and Cloudy” Tuesday Morning Forecast

The current upper level pattern shows a weakness extending across the upper Mississippi Valley and a close low near Baja California. The disturbance that brought rain the local area yesterday is quickly racing east while the disturbance to the north digs south into the midsection of the country. This will send a weakening cold front to the area. Still looks like this boundary will be stalling right over the area.

That scenario will provide a focus for mostly shower development with scattered storms. Some training may be possible but thinking that rain rates are not overly intense. Overnight period could be conducive for fog development and may need a dense fog advisory.

Likely the most impactful weather of the week will be coming late Wednesday. The upper low currently off the CA coast will track across Mexico tonight night and into/across central Texas Wed. Models show a surface low moving from Austin in the morning to right over Baton Rouge just after dark. That will put the southern half of the area in the warm sector.

Along and south of the warm front in the warm sector is where the threat for severe weather is greatest. There’s a Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall over basically the entire area. Best chances for severe are looking like coastal MS counties.

Timing of the surface low puts the window of severe threat beginning well into the afternoon and carrying over into the evening hours from west to east across the area. All modes of severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible.

The area should be quickly clearing out before sunrise Thursday as the upper low races eastward. Skies my stay cloudy for much of the day, but the rain should be done. Temps will be slightly cooler than normal Thursday but quickly bounce back to and rise above normal Friday into the weekend.