03/02 – Brantly’s “Showers and Thunderstorms” Tuesday Forecast
Radar shows next wave of rain spreading in from the west as the next system approaches. We continue to be sandwiched between a strong upper level high pressure to our south and an approaching low pressure system currently centered over the Red River valley. A cold front has settled southward over the northern Gulf, south of the area waters and has become nearly stationary.
The alignment of the front is important as a wave of low pressure tracks east northeast along the boundary into our coastal waters later today. The latest models suggest that the bit more southward position of the low and low track more over the coastal waters would keep the boundary from making much northward progress. A band of rain on the cool side of the boundary occurs through most of the day with the heaviest precipitation over the interior portions of the area. This area has been marked with nearly 100% chance of rain today.
There is plenty of moisture for some heavy rainfall especially if storms are able to train over the same locations. The interior zones of South Mississippi into Southwest Alabama , mainly north of I-10 have a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. While flash flooding seems unlikely, some areas in the marginal risk area could see 1 to 3 inches of rain and localized nuisance flooding.
The remainder of this evening through Wednesday will be characterized by high pressure building in, drying out, and cooling down. Expect temps to remain below normal for the day on Wednesday before rebounding back above normal Thursday as upper level high pressure builds in across the southern half of the Mississippi River Valley.